Arabic version: توقف المفاوضات بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران وسط مخاطر تطويل النزاع
Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain deadlocked two months after a joint surprise attack was launched by the US and Israel. Competing blockades of the Strait of Hormuz are disrupting global energy supplies, and the future of Iran’s nuclear program remains unresolved. According to Al Jazeera, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly stated that the US is still engaging with Iran but will not rush into making a bad deal.
Despite a ceasefire in effect since April 8, all military options are reportedly still on the table. Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has warned of the potential for a “frozen conflict,” where the critical waterway is used as leverage amidst ongoing tensions. Analysts suggest that a low-intensity conflict with intermittent strikes could serve as a temporary solution but may lead to prolonged instability in the region.
Experts have noted the high costs associated with a frozen war. Mehran Kamrava from Georgetown University stated that both the US and Iran cannot sustain indefinite blockades without significant economic repercussions. The Quincy Institute estimated the US incurred costs between $20 billion and $25 billion in the first month of the conflict, while a large-scale ground operation could exceed $650 billion annually.
The US military has enforced a naval blockade on Iranian ports since April 13, while Iran has implemented its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to rising fuel prices in the US, impacting consumer costs ahead of upcoming midterm elections. The situation has also strained US relations with Gulf allies, as Iranian strikes have caused considerable damage to military assets in the region.
The ongoing conflict raises questions about its future trajectory. Chandler Williams from the Peace Research Institute Oslo noted that the conflict has lasted longer than initially projected, with the potential for it to evolve into a protracted scenario. Both the US and Iran appear to be weighing their options, with Iran leveraging its geographic position while the US considers its military strategies in response to the conflict’s escalation.
