The upcoming US presidential election is not just a pivotal event for the United States but also for numerous countries around the world, including Jordan. With Jordan nestled in a geopolitically volatile region, the outcome of the US election will have profound implications on its stability, economic progress, and regional security. This intricate relationship underscores the significance of the US election for Jordan’s interests.
Jordan is surrounded by turmoil. To the north, it faces challenges from a drug-trafficking plagued and Bashar al-Assad-led Syria. To the east, Iraq grapples with economic difficulties and armed militias. To the west, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and tensions between Israel and Iran add layers of complexity. Amid these challenges, Jordan has relied heavily on its strong ties with the United States to maintain stability and security.
Jordan’s strategic alliance with the US has been crucial, especially visible during Iran’s drone and missile attack on Israel in April. Despite Jordan closing its airspace and adopting a realpolitik stance towards objects flying over its territory, US support played a vital role in ensuring Jordan’s security. This incident highlighted the importance of the US-Jordan alliance in navigating regional threats.
Moreover, the US has been instrumental in strengthening Jordan’s border security against arms and drug trafficking from Syria. In late 2022, the US pledged $500 million to bolster Jordan’s border security, showcasing its commitment to Jordan’s stability.
The economic dimension of US-Jordan relations is equally significant. In 2022, a seven-year memorandum of understanding was signed between the US and Jordan, dedicating $1.45 billion annually to support Jordan. This assistance was further supplemented by additional funding packages, bringing the total US aid to Jordan to a record $2.1 billion in recent years. This financial support has been pivotal in aiding Jordan’s economic recovery, political reform, and security measures.
Diplomatically, US-Jordan relations have reached unprecedented heights under President Joe Biden and King Abdullah II. Celebrating 75 years of diplomatic ties, the relationship has been characterized by mutual respect and strategic cooperation. Public sentiment in Jordan towards the US has also improved, reflecting the positive impact of American assistance and diplomacy.
Recent polls by NAMA Strategic Intelligence Solutions reveal a significant shift in Jordanian public opinion towards the US. Despite initial dips in popularity due to Washington’s response to the Israel-Hamas conflict, three-quarters of Jordanians now believe that US-Jordan relations are not affected by the war in Gaza. Moreover, 31.7% of Jordanians consider the US as Jordan’s most important political ally, second only to Saudi Arabia. This is a substantial increase from 20% in November 2023. Similarly, 38% of Jordanians identify the US as the most important economic supporter, up from 29% in the previous year.
This positive perception persists despite widespread negative sentiment regarding America’s role in the Gaza conflict. The pragmatic approach of Jordanians, prioritizing their country’s strategic interests and economic needs, has played a crucial role in this shift. More than half of Jordanians favor strengthening ties with the US, and over three-quarters do not prefer closer relations with Russia or China over the US.
Given the substantial support Jordan has received from the Biden administration, the upcoming US presidential election is critical for Jordan’s future. Since Biden took office, US aid to Jordan has increased by 65% compared to the Trump administration. This support has been vital for Jordan’s economic stability and security, contributing to a 32% increase in US-Jordan trade volume between 2018 and 2023.
However, the relationship between Jordan and the US is not just dependent on one administration. The bipartisan support for Jordan in the US is strong, but there are concerns about potential changes in policy with a new administration. During Trump’s presidency, Jordan experienced challenges, particularly regarding its historic custodianship over Islamic and Christian holy sites in Jerusalem.
A second Trump presidency could bring uncertainties for Jordan. The Trump administration’s approach to Middle Eastern policy, including its stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict, differed significantly from the current administration. Jordan, which has a vested interest in the resolution of the Israel-Palestine conflict, might face challenges if the US shifts its policies under a different leadership.
Moreover, the economic and security assistance that Jordan has relied upon might face revisions. While it is unlikely that the US would completely withdraw its support, changes in the level and nature of assistance could impact Jordan’s ability to navigate its regional challenges.
Jordan’s strategic geopolitical significance cannot be overstated. As a reliable partner for the US in the Middle East, Jordan has played a crucial role in regional stability. Its cooperation with the US in security matters, including counter-terrorism efforts and border security, has been indispensable. Furthermore, Jordan’s moderate stance and diplomatic efforts in the region align with US interests, making it a valuable ally.
The US election will therefore have far-reaching implications for Jordan. The continuation of the current level of support and cooperation is essential for Jordan’s stability and progress. A renewed Biden administration is likely to continue and possibly enhance the support, while a new administration might bring changes that could affect Jordan’s strategic planning.
The upcoming US presidential election is a monumental event with significant implications for Jordan. The strong ties between the US and Jordan have been crucial in maintaining stability and security in a volatile region. Economic assistance, diplomatic relations, and public perception in Jordan highlight the importance of this alliance.
As Jordan navigates its geopolitical challenges, the outcome of the US election will play a decisive role in shaping its future. The stakes are high, and Jordan will be watching closely, hoping for a continuation of the robust support it has received in recent years. The US election is not just a domestic event; it is a global one with profound consequences for Jordan and the broader Middle East.
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